Lowest Mortgage Rates on Staten Island Presents, “The Week Ahead”

Two Mondays ago, bond markets bounced at the exact same levels that followed the weak Jobs report on April 5th. It became increasingly clear through the course of that week (4/15-4/19) that we were entering into some manner of sideways slide–not eager to extend already solid recent improvements, but clearly also not eager to head back into March’s trading range. To whatever extent that “sideways-ness” was clear, it was always stood it’s best chance to be broken by the current week of data and events. The following chart presents two ways to view the recent range in 10yr Treasuries: purely flat with a few “lead-offs” or slightly bullish tilted (teal lines).

blog 1

There’s significant economic data every day this week and several potential watershed moments. The big-ticket events start hitting on Wednesday with ADP Payrolls (only inasmuch as it has the potential to suggest reevaluating expectations for the official Employment Situation Report on Friday–the biggest ticket of the week). ISM Non-Manufacturing data follows later that morning, but is outdone by 2pm’s release of the Fed’s latest policy announcement. This is the shorter, more precise text used to officially communicate the current policy (as opposed to FOMC “Minutes” which are longer, less formal, and slightly more open to interpretation). Unlike the last FOMC Announcement, this one is not accompanied by forecasts from FOMC Members or the press conference from the chairperson. Unless it differs meaningfully from the previous iteration, there’s a good chance it won’t have much impact, but the impact can be significant if it makes an overt change or a less-than-subtle hint that one is coming.

The pace of events doesn’t let up on Thursday as the European Central Bank (ECB) is out with their analogous policy announcement. A majority of economists polled by Reuters believe the ECB will cut rates for the first time in nearly a year. It’s not a given that this will happen, nor that it would be by the 0.50% amount predicted. The divergent possibilities leave the door open for more volatility in bond markets following the announcement. At the same time that ECB President Draghi begins his Press Conference 45 minutes after the announcement, so too will US Economic data begin coming in for the day with Jobless Claims as well as Productivity and Costs.

Friday morning remains the focal point of the week with Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30am, though markets will have had plenty of opportunity to move even before then. Take the last instance of an NFP week for example (it’s on the chart above too!). 10yr yields began breaking below that 1.823% line on Wednesday and extended gains on Thursday only to have Friday’s job’s report motivate the biggest gains of the week. That was a classic example of a pre-NFP “lead-off,” and such things are especially possible when the rest of the week is fraught with other meaningful data.

For more information visit http://www.mortgagessiny.com

Advertisements

About mortgagelendingstatenisland

I am a mortgage banking veteran with over 15 years of experience at every level of the mortgage arena. I am known as the "closer" because of my troubleshooting skils and ability to explain in detail to my clients and business partners "What Makes A Mortgage Approvable".

Posted on April 29, 2013, in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: