After hitting the lowest levels in over 2 months on Friday, mortgage rates bounced almost all the way back to Thursday’s levels.  That’s somewhat significant as the drop between Thursday and Friday was one of the strongest moves lower in months. 

The original impetus for Friday’s strength had been headlines suggesting the armed conflict in Ukraine was taking a turn for the worse.  When markets arrived this morning to see that didn’t turn out to be the case, some of the “panic premium” began evaporating.  As the day progressed, there was a stark absence of disconcerting headlines, and it’s those negative headlines that fuel investor demand for the types of safe-haven securities that benefit mortgage rates.

The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios remains 4.125%.  Many scenarios are still at 4.25% depending on the lender.  The prospects for widespread availability of 4.0% die down with today’s move, but apart from yesterday, we’re still as close to that as we’ve been since late May.

If you have the stomach to absorb further increases in rates, floating isn’t out of the question as we’re still near the lower side of a longer-term trend leading lower.  Just realize that if rates continue high enough to break that trend, you could be forced to lock at a loss.   For shorter term scenarios or longer term scenarios that are happy with current rates, it’s also a good idea to lock near long-term lows if the opportunity presents itself, and today’s rates are still among the best of the year.