Monthly Archives: November 2014
Mortgage rates were sideways for the most part today, keeping the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates between 4.0 and 4.125%. After bond markets made it through this week’s Treasury auction process (which happens every other week, in general, and can restrain positivity to a small extent), trading levels improved and several lenders have released positive rate sheet revisions. But even then, the improvement seen on rate sheets didn’t measure up to the improvement in the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that most directly affect lenders’ rate sheets.
This isn’t altogether uncommon, especially when MBS improve late in the day as was the case today. The tacit implication is that rates can improve even if markets merely hold steady tomorrow. That’s a fairly big “if” considering the week’s most important economic data comes out in the morning, but all things being equal, markets have shown that they’re at least receptive to the idea of reversing recent trends.
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, erasing some of the gains seen on Friday, but remaining well within the recent range. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers had clearly been 4.0% on Friday, but today’s weakness makes 4.125% nearly as common. That said, the shift isn’t due to the size of the move in rates today, simply the fact that we were very close to the edge of the range to begin with.
Most mortgage companies will be closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. Lenders that remain open to accept locks will not have the benefit of the bond market being open. In these cases, rate sheets are either a carbon copy of the previous business day’s or they’re slightly worse. That means you’ll be waiting until Wednesday before having an opportunity to see any significant changes.
Mortgage rates continued higher today, edging up to their worst levels in nearly a month. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers is currently a toss-up between 4.0 and 4.125% depending on the lender.
Most of the time, when rates are at periodic highs like this, there will have been a notably intense day or two of weakness at some point during the move up–some driving force helping to accelerate rising rates. This time, however, the weakness has been remarkably linear because the driving force was simply that rates had fallen so much by mid October. Everything that’s followed has been a scripted correction back to what had been the best rates of the year this time last month.
With no fundamental driving force behind recent weakness, it begs the question of whether rates have risen enough to satisfy the underlying market correction. Based on how far that correction has come, this week may well be when we find out if October marked a sustained move into a lower rate range or if it was just an aberration.